Zaslal: so 12. srpen, 2017 16:01 Předmět: Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat 8212 12-10-
9:03Jeff Sullivan: Hey everybody! Its the winter meetings!
9:04Jeff Sullivan: So lets talk about the meetings and all sorts of attendant rumors and whatnot.
9:05Jeff Sullivan: A fantasy interested in the HoF voting yesterday. Worked out reasonably. Miller should be in. Didnt wish to go in after his death. Okay. Lets just go ahead and not chat about that
9:05Jeff Sullivan: Hottest topics at the moment are a Trumbo three-team trade and that i gue s Rajai Davis going to Detroit
9:06Comment From SMCDanny Espinosa to NYY makes an exce sive amount of sense not to happen.
9:06Jeff Sullivan: I like the rumor about the Nationals balking at the idea of trading Espinosa away. No they arent. Cute try though. More than pleased to maneuver him.
9:07Comment From WilliamWhat perform the Yankees do for second base? What whenever they do?
9:07Jeff Sullivan: Espinosa could be interesting, Infante could be fine and fairly obvious. Still thinking Infante, myself
9:07Comment From Pirates HurdlesIs LoMo a smart buy low? Seems like he may 't be better than a league average bat, but nonethele s just 26.
9:08Jeff Sullivan: I believe its interesting that the teams most thinking about him are the Rays and Pirates, since, you know. And that he does have a good high-minors history. But his big-league track record is not good, its pretty big, and hes not that young anymore. I believe hes okay if he comes fairly cheap but Im doubting his upside
9:08Comment From MonkeyEpoxyWhen have you guys add 5 year oliver projections? And good lord Yu Darvish projected to 29.1 wins over the next Five years.
9:08Jeff Sullivan: I think it was last week? Some of them are nutty, a number of them are of interest
9:10Comment From Sammy SooserAre you analyzing all Winter meetings? Is Cistulli aware?
9:10Jeff Sullivan: Way too much. Im not even there personally. Dont see the point
9:10Comment From CochiseWhy arent the Mariners in on Trumbo?
9:10Jeff Sullivan: For those I understand they're, quietly, but I hope that theyre not specifically because hes not too good
9:10Comment From mikeExpecting any surprises over the next few days?
9:10Jeff Sullivan: I expect there will be surprises, however i do not expect specific surprises, because by definition those would not be surprises
9:10Comment From JimI almost wish that story about the Mariners were true just because of methods well it would summarize the busine s. Probably to find the best that its not though.
9:11Jeff Sullivan: Additionally, to be honest, I bet that kind of thing happens not infrequently. Maybe not just as laid out, but teams do bid against themselves. Evan Grant did a bad job of phrasing
9:11Comment From Swing and a Mi s Puiggyrumors, whatnot.is Ubaldo this offseasons Kyle Lohse?
9:12Jeff Sullivan: Nah, I think he's an exce sive amount of upside
9:12Jeff Sullivan: In a sane world Nelson Cruz might be this years Kyle Lohse, but hes getting lots of bites it seems
9:12Comment From mikeIf Im the Yankees why would I want to eliminate Brett Gardner? Hes pretty good. What about Ichiro or Soriano or Wells?
9:13Jeff Sullivan: Already 30, twelve months left of team control, most desirable of those guys inside a deal. However i dont much like the concept of moving him, because I dont like losing good contributors to intended contenders
9:13Comment From GuestDoes Sale or Masterson make more sense for that Ms?
9:13Jeff Sullivan: Sale but hes not available
9:13Jeff Sullivan: I can already sense this chat is going to be dominated by Mariners questions, as well as for once theyre actually really interesting
9:13Comment From MichaelEaton and Skaggs must be horrible to become traded for Trumbo? Bauer trade at first looked bad too though
9:14Jeff Sullivan: Or it might just be a bad trade for Arizona
9:14Comment From OrenIs Doc a Hall of Famer?
9:14Jeff Sullivan: I believe so, but if I have any strong opinions within my bones, basically not one of them relate to the baseball Hall of Fame
9:15Comment From Joe CarterAny action to become expected in the Blue Jays this week?
9:15Jeff Sullivan: Doesnt appear to T.Y. Hilton Jersey be theres a great deal to do thats been talked about, beyond minor moves. A Jose Bautista trade would qualify as a potential major surprise
9:16Comment From JimRajai Davis going to Detroit
9:16Jeff Sullivan: combined 1 WAR during the last 3 years!
9:16Comment From BretLets say there was a three way trade where the DBacks got Mark Trumbo, Angels got Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago, and also the White Sox got Adam Eaton. Who'd be the hypothetical winners and losers in said deal?
9:18Jeff Sullivan: That might be super if the White Sox could turn Santiago into Eaton
9:18Jeff Sullivan: The Angels would win, too, and also the Diamondbacks would lose, although I'll point out that while were all noting Trumbos various flaws, he is fine and cost-controlled for a while so theres still real surplus value
9:18Comment From CarlMariners pull Tanaka and Price (without Walker involved) and sign Choo and Moralesyoung guys perform nearer to expectation..still 3rd place in West?
9:19Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations, you've your team that can contend for the AL West. Now try to actually pull that off
9:20Comment From PrichIf you're Jack Z, are there any players in baseball you are prepared to part with Walker for, beyond Trout/McCutcheon/Stanton/Profar?
9:20Jeff Sullivan: Good young players with at least 3 years left or so
9:20Comment From David GDo you believe the Cardinals shop some of their exce s pitching/outfield depth in the Winter Meetings? What is it searching for if so?
9:22Jeff Sullivan: Honestly it sure appears like the Cardinals are pretty set for now and for the long haul. They could get David Price when they wanted to, but I think theyre probably too smart for that.
9:23Jeff Sullivan: They of course po se s the resources to create a big giant splash out of nowhere however i dont think they're actually going to visit that course
9:24Comment From TedStephen Drew where you can? Cant be Boston, will it?
9:25Jeff Sullivan: Sure can. Teams without shortstops right now are for probably the most part pretty bad teams. And the Indians have put Asdrubal Cabrera on the market, making things more challenging for Drew still. I think Boston comes with an excellent shot
9:25Comment From JoshHow much are you prepared to forgive Jack Z for if he gets Cliff Lee from the Phillies again?
9:26Jeff Sullivan: for $62.5 million over two years?
9:26Jeff Sullivan: From a team that wont kick in anything?
9:27Comment From McExposNo volcano selfies inside your Wired piece that you simply should now plug?
9:27Jeff Sullivan: I dont like to put images of myself on the internet
9:27Comment From FishIf I wanted to find something like Rajai Daviss numbers in games started with a lefty, is that at all easy? Or can i need to look up starters and look at game logs and whatnot?
9:28Jeff Sullivan: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=davisra01&year=Career&t=b#plato
9:28Comment From SMRTKevin Towers?! Is it just recency bias or (if the Trumbo move happens) is that this an unprecedented run of smrt moves?
9:28Jeff Sullivan: Especially unprecedented in that this would probably not be a real smart move
9:28Comment From RyanSo, a Dirks/Davis platoon is, what? Vaguely excellent? Roughly?
9:28Jeff Sullivan: sure, that neighborhood
9:28Comment From Sammy SooserMatt Kemp came back from his injuries at le s than 100% every single time, and it was rather apparent. Greinke returned in the collarbone injury early as well is anyone talking about the Dodger medical staff when discu sing the trades?
9:30Jeff Sullivan: No, probably not
9:30Comment From PrichIf you're Jack Z, how much of Kemps salary does LA have to take on for you to include Franklin in the deal?
9:30Jeff Sullivan: So do I recieve to think like me or do I have to think like Jack Z since in this hypothetical Im him?
9:31Jeff Sullivan: If its me me, Im reluctant to give up much value for Kemp at all. If the Dodgers ate some millions, Id kick in a mediocre prospect or two. To obtain Franklin, it might cost several tens of millions. It could be too much of a buy-low for the sides to match up
9:32Comment From GuestAny feeling of what Davis signed for? He appears like a pretty solid platoon bat.
9:32Jeff Sullivan: I believe I saw two years, $10mish
9:32Comment From MichaelCould the D-Backs add both Trumbo and Choo?
9:32Jeff Sullivan: Could in theory, cant in reality
9:32Comment From APODionysusSince here's your first chat since, I needed to state in so sorry Jeff. I didnt realize precisely how crazy things were in Ms FO
9:32Jeff Sullivan: Well, Used to do, so you don't need to apologize
9:32Comment From @Namele sRangerIve heard that three teams are attempting to land Juan Uribe (LAD, MIA, CWS). Is the fact that theres a mini bidding war for Sad Juan Uribe as absurd when i believe it is?
9:33Jeff Sullivan: coming off a five-win season!
9:33Jeff Sullivan: also the 3B market sucks
9:33Jeff Sullivan: and the Marlins and White Sox suck
9:33Comment From LarryAIf Beltran has 3 All-star level seasons including more postseason succe s in NYY and retires. What hat does he wear in to the HOF?
9:33Jeff Sullivan: This isnt the question I thought it might be after i accepted it
9:34Jeff Sullivan: The hell with it. Royals! Yeah!
9:34Comment From GuestWhat about Mark Ellis at 2B for that Yankees?
9:34Jeff Sullivan: probably on their list, probably not at the top of it
9:34Comment From Sammy SooserAre people floating the negotiation window as a nece sity within the David Price trade talks?
9:34Jeff Sullivan: Not to my knowledge
9:34Comment From GuestIs there a means of calculating xBB% or xSO%?
9:35Jeff Sullivan: There are a couple of ways, all of them flawed
9:35Comment From GuestHow similar are Lomo and Smoak?
9:35Jeff Sullivan: Competing brands of the identical thing, but I think ultimately Morrison will look like the better hitter and Smoak the greater defender
9:36Comment From ThadWhat can you pay Bartolo Colon for a twelve months deal?
9:36Jeff Sullivan: low eight figures
9:36Comment From SteveWhere do you think Nick Franklin find yourself?
9:37Jeff Sullivan: I was absolutely convinced it would be Might prior to the Royals apparently took Butler off the market. That could still be re-visited. I think, reasonably, Franklin could be the main piece inside a David Price trade, but the Rays would have to accept that and that may take too much time to determine
9:37Comment From LarryAWhats your home coffee set-up?
9:37Jeff Sullivan: Espre so machine Andrew Luck Jersey and dealing on it. Within the next few months, burr grinder and pour-over
9:37Comment From mikeAre you in the winter meetings Jeff?
9:37Jeff Sullivan: Didnt want to be, and it also helps the company to have someone out west in case of late-night blockbuster news
9:38Jeff Sullivan: I mean I enjoy hanging out with everyone and its a memorable experience but god damn could it be hard to get work done
9:38Comment From GuestHow can the Dbacks even seem to be in on Choo. They're about $10mm away from the max budget plus they still need starting pitching. Could they be fooling anyone?
9:38Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, theyre fooling plenty of writers
9:39Jeff Sullivan: Teams can always move money around
9:40Comment From JTTMagglio ordonez was just elected mayor of Sotillo Venezuela as a member of the socialist party. Discu s?
9:40Jeff Sullivan: isnt Raul Mondesi mayor somewhere?
9:42Comment From Shark MapiroDo you see a corresponding move coming since the Indians have Santana, Swish, Cooper and Giambi as 1B/DH types? Are they that confident Santana can man 3B?
9:42Jeff Sullivan: nobodys planning anything major around Cooper or Giambi and Santana is just likely to be just a little experiment. sorry to be boring
9:42Comment From GabeMets asked Orioles for Bundy in return for Murphy? I would erect a shrine to Sandy Alderson within my apartment if he got so now.
9:43Jeff Sullivan: that they didnt
9:43Jeff Sullivan: lots of teams request lots of stuff in trades that dont get completed
9:43Comment From Chicago MarkLoMo did hit 20 homers in cavernous Miami. If he would go to Pitt or now Balt is within discu sions he hits just a little better just on ball park changes. Agree?
9:43Jeff Sullivan: He could hit better in other environments, but then thats why there are park factors. Wouldnt can even make him better
9:43Comment From MarcusThe Mariners are going to do something silly like quit Walker, Franklin and much more for David Price, arent they?
9:44Jeff Sullivan: I actually dont think so. Although boy they have proven me wrong
9:44Comment From RobWhere are these 5 year projections? What does Trouts look like?
9:44Jeff Sullivan: player pages
9:44Jeff Sullivan: Trout: http://www.fangraphs.com/stat s.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF#longprojection
9:44Comment From DavePLong time fangraphser, very first time fangraphs chat-er. Are the phillies nuts to become shopping their ace pitchers using their black hole of an offense?
9:44Jeff Sullivan: Well, they suck, so its most likely not the worst idea to try and money in for longer-term value
9:45Comment From Joe BobMatt Kemp to Boston? Seattle? Detroit? or staying in LA?
9:45Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately I personally think he stays, but thats betting on rationality and I dont know who might end up desperate
9:46Comment From Chicago MarkWhy would be the Cubs talking trade with the Nats whenever they can just sign Axford?
9:46Jeff Sullivan: https://twitter.com/AdamKilgoreWP/status/410449128184090625
9:46Comment From TreyIts been my impre sion that some people consider Chris Sale an injury risk because of his slight frame and different motion. The MASH report predicts that he is harry potter 7 least likely SP to obtain injured. Not understanding the right or best body size/type is it po sible to use weight and height to help predict injuries?
9:46Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, within reasonable margins
9:47Jeff Sullivan: There are likely to be some injury breakthroughs in the coming years. Were not going to develop them on the outside, nor can we have sufficient information. Each and every pitcher has different limits and people limits are hidden within the body. We cant enter there
9:47Comment From MonkeyEpoxyEvan Grant was making a joke. Im honestly surprised it got the legs it did.
9:47Jeff Sullivan: It was very poorly written
9:47Comment From Right-handedNot a lot of buzz about Guti and Im a little surprised someone hasnt swooped in and gobbled him up on a budget. Even when hes only a 4th outfielder, he'll always have the po sibility to become more than that until his leg snaps off.
9:48Jeff Sullivan: Maybe teams need to see what he does in the winter months ball in Venezuela
9:49Jeff Sullivan: and I havent seen his medicals and teams might be rightly nervous about a man with supposedly an incurable illne s
9:49Comment From BretMasahiro Tanaka is under agreement for two more years in Japan. If his team posts him this year, they get $20M. When they post him the coming year, they get $20M and one more year of Tanaka. The risk is really a major injury or performance i sue. The private factor is the fact that he may wish to visit the US now. Whenever they post him?
9:49Jeff Sullivan: Even when he struggles or has a major injury hes almost certainly still going to draw $20 million annually from now
9:50Jeff Sullivan: From a busine s perspective, they should probably just hold on to him. But if he really, badly wants to visit MLB, I think that matters quite a bit
9:50Comment From MarechalI liked your post yesterday about Kuroda, as well as your point that challenges the conventional wisdom that the Yankees rotation is a major problem. Their lineup, in accordance with the league, is a lot worse.
9:51Jeff Sullivan: I'll say there is a problem of rotation depth not the largest believer ever in Warren/Nuno but Pineda is really a fascinating wild card
9:51Comment From Phillip Dorsett Jersey Pedantic A**holeKemp to the Rangers?
9:51Jeff Sullivan: Not seeing it. Cruz more likely
9:52Comment From DougWhy would the Indians trade Masterson?
9:52Jeff Sullivan: one year left. may as well see whats out there
9:52Comment From AntonWhat was the purpose of trading Jim Johnson, if the Orioles might sign Grant Balfour?
9:53Jeff Sullivan: Balfour could save several million and bring an extra year of team control or whatever
9:53Comment From Next Mariners Flyball Starting PitcherSo what is your prediction for that Mariners outfield in 2014?
9:53Jeff Sullivan: Gun to my head? Choo/Ackley/Saunders with Almonte fourth, but Cruz is still way up there too
9:53Comment From AdamWhen you appear on MLB Network, will they provide a dre s shirt / necktie / drab cityscape background style guide? Or perhaps is that you?
9:54Jeff Sullivan: The cityscape may be the product from the local studio wherever filming is completed, and when Used to do it I was allowed to dre s myself. But I understand they gave some clothes to Dave Cameron
9:54Comment From Chris_FBWhat could the Angels po sibly do to excite their fanbase this offseason? They taken care of the best hitter and finest pitcher available 2 years ago fell flat. Got premium hitter last season fell flat. Why believe what you do that offseason increases their chances of finishing better than 3rd again, short of poisoning all the BBQ in Arlington and seeding the O.Co with landmines?
9:55Jeff Sullivan: Pujols needs to be healthier and Mike Trout remains to be. Currently the Angels rank right with the Rangers and As in terms of projected WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team
9:56Jeff Sullivan: Not to imply, obviously, I believe theyre so good, but theyre just around the corner at all within the short-term, even given whats happened. Theyre a contender, with needs
9:57Comment From joshWhen I just read Jeff Sullivans comments, I hear Casey Sterns voice. Why is that?
9:57Jeff Sullivan: maybe youve recently heard Casey Stern
9:57Comment From MkeManBest gue s for years/$ a Corey Hart contract?
9:57Jeff Sullivan: Hmm. $14m/2?
9:57Comment From Right-handedDo you believe the White Sox are motivated to manage Quintana for any surplus 2B (Franklin)?
9:58Jeff Sullivan: Motivated? No
9:58Comment From MichaelShould the White Sox trade Sale?
9:58Jeff Sullivan: Not for which teams would offer
9:58Comment From NoelHave you written off Jesus Montero or do you consider he could pull a Justin Smoak and contribute some value, even when its half a win?
9:58Jeff Sullivan: I havent written him off but Im not counting on him for anything going forward. And Smoak isnt good either
9:59Comment From DrewEven using the Davis signing, the Tigers seem worse in hitting and pitching, but better in defense and baserunning compared to this past year. Is it enough to obtain these to the WS? That offense just seems much worse than last year.
9:59Jeff Sullivan: Second in baseball in projected WAR, between the Red Sox and Cardinals
9:59Jeff Sullivan: Position-player situation could be improved, however the pitchings still insane
10:01Comment From MarkMore amusing idea: Giancarlo Stanton or Joe Blanton playing for that Colorado Rockies?
10:01Jeff Sullivan: Amusing: Blanton. Awe-inspiring: Stanton
10:01Jeff Sullivan: was the rhyming scheme intentional?
10:01Comment From A. LaneHas the disposable agent market become relatively depleted when compared with 10 years ago due players signing extensions? I have seen some suggest this but nobody provides greater than anecdotes, and cursory numbers,and hinted that insufficient PEDs has hindered value of 30yo plus player.
10:02Jeff Sullivan: I dont determine if anyones done the work, but it certainly seems a lot lighter than it was once. A number of that could be just improvements in evaluation and understanding that free agency isnt a great place to buy
10:02Comment From ShawnWhat would you see like a stat line for Cano this season?
10:02Jeff Sullivan: Not likely to deviate from Steamer on this
10:03Comment From GuestDoes Skaggs concern you, I recall Eno referring to his skillset as present day Barry Zito which scared me. Is he just being b-a-d?
10:04Jeff Sullivan: Skaggs can continue to mi s some bats. I like him as a target as long as youre surrendering someone like Trumbo
10:04Comment From GuestWhat did you major in?
10:04Jeff Sullivan: Chemistry
10:05Jeff Sullivan: not the baseball kind
10:05Jeff Sullivan: even though it works out that might be more useful
10:05Comment From Chris_FBCliff Lee is apparently available on the market. *drool* Recent reports say hes likely calling it a career when his current contract is up. Think he goes to NYY / BOS / LAD to get a ring?
10:05Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers could be really interesting if they give up on attempting to trade for David Price. One of the few teams willing to afford that sort of lofty salary
10:06Comment From GuestChoo will be a better fit for Yankees than Ellsbury, even for same price. Better hitting skills, and still a very good RF. Would you agree?
10:06Jeff Sullivan: No, because Ellsburys better
10:06Comment From EmberIf Tanakas ultimately able to negotiate with several teams, what do you think his contract ends up looking like?
10:07Jeff Sullivan: Rangers got Darvish in a total investment of approximately $110 million over six years. Theres been some market inflation, but Tanaka is also supposedly not quite of Darvishs caliber. I think something around the order of $100 million/six years, plus $20 million posting fee
10:07Comment From Guestwhat other responsibilities have you got at fangraphs aside from chats, the community blog and articles?
10:08Jeff Sullivan: depth charts (AL West) and adding to bigger FG projects
10:08Jeff Sullivan: and USS Mariner is fractionally an FG responsibility
10:08Comment From BrianI havent heard much chatter about it, and am worried: just how untouchable is Brad Miller?
10:08Jeff Sullivan: Cant see him moving. No other shortstops
10:08Comment From StevePlease god let AZ make this trade! It would be the very first happine s ive experienced being an angels fan this fall
10:09Jeff Sullivan: Im getting excited about reading whatever Dave just wrote about Trumbo around the front page
10:10Comment From JamesWhat could NYY reasonably enter return for Gardner?
10:10Jeff Sullivan: half-decent SP
10:10Comment From Chris_FBSince it isnt self-promotion if someone else says it, heres the volcano post on Wired: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/12/the-volcanoes-of-guatemala-a-guest-post-from-jeff-sullivan/
10:10Jeff Sullivan: whoopsadoodle, yeah, yay volcanoes!
10:10Jeff Sullivan: and heres a video of the new volcano! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcu6SORnmA&feature=youtu.be
10:10Comment From GuestMatt Kemps defense in a corner outfield spotreasonable? average a little better. i don;t be aware of defensive spectrum good enough.
10:11Jeff Sullivan: Reasonable for the following little while, provided he returns pretty healthy from all of his lower-body problems
10:11Comment From Pedantic A**holeGuti got sick down in Winter Ball. Least surprising news ever.
10:11Jeff Sullivan: of course that couldve just been a cold
10:11Jeff Sullivan: and a lot of people become ill in Venezuela
10:11Comment From ben cwaht is really a realistic return for mike carp and/or ryan dempster?
10:11Jeff Sullivan: this chat comment
10:11Comment From gruntswhat does getting stephen drew mean for xander/will MB? and how often do all of them play?
10:11Jeff Sullivan: Reduced playing time. All would play pretty often
10:12Comment From NickWould you have any interest in pursuing a front office job?
10:12Jeff Sullivan: Not any longer, but I did 5 years ago
10:12Jeff Sullivan: I dont think I have anything to present an actual baseball team
10:12Comment From GuestWhat would it take to get the Angels to even listen to an offer for Trout? Harper, Strasburg, ++?
10:13Jeff Sullivan: Everything that the Cardinals have
10:13Comment From SadwickFeels like RAJ went for win now within the free agent market and sell now with the thought of trading Lee or Hamels. Whats more likely: a)hes schizophrenic b)he has an evil twin c)he really wants to find out if he is able to make his stat department po se s a seizure with a logical paradox d)hes just RAJ, he's his own strange agenda
10:13Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he feels like he is able to turn among those guys into a blockbuster that Erik Swoope Jersey doesnt hurt much within the short-term. Not going to happen
10:13Comment From DanHow much worse are the Tigers this season compared to last year? Seems like their roster is ma sively downgraded but they were arguably the very best team last year (when healthy), and so i dont know what to think.
10:14Jeff Sullivan: Barely worse. Maybe not worse whatsoever based on Smyly/Castellanos
10:14Jeff Sullivan: Still one of the best title contenders
10:14Comment From TomThink the Cardinals will move a surplus pitcher or OF for prospects?
10:14Jeff Sullivan: I do not!
10:15Comment From GSonwhat the player/individual wants in Japan is culturally considered secondary to the needs from the group or team. So, what Tanaka wants wont matter as much as youve stated.. You have to take the culture into account when projecting american values
10:15Jeff Sullivan: Thats great and all, but from what Ive read if Tanaka still wants to play in MLB after all the conversations, theyre going to allow that happen
10:15Jeff Sullivan: But the teams likely to try to convince him to stay around
10:16Comment From TravisIs Stephen Drew this years Michael Bourn? Will he sign before spring training?
10:16Jeff Sullivan: Hell sign before ST, but yeah, this can be a weird market for him
10:17Comment From AndyI just read your pieced at Wired. Fun stuff!
10:17Jeff Sullivan: thanks, but more to the point, Erik Klemetti rocks !. terrific writer about science
10:17Comment From NickArizona has traded Parker, Bauer and now Skaggs(maybe). Performs this mean Kevin Towers will be receiving rid of Bradley next season?
10:17Jeff Sullivan: that doesn't follow
10:18Jeff Sullivan: nece sarily
10:18Comment From MichaelShouldnt teams be willing to pay attention on any player? Theres always these reports of teams willing to listen as if theyre actively attempting to shop them.
10:18Jeff Sullivan: its media people generating content they need to generate in order to keep their jobs
10:18Comment From DaveWhy would the Phillies sign comp pieces like Byrd and then shop their best pitchers? Could they be attempting to compete the coming year or otherwise?
10:18Jeff Sullivan: Its not like Byrd was a huge investment. Theyre not competing in 2014 regardle s
10:19Jeff Sullivan: It is a bit strange though, which Ill acknowledge, but its nothing like theyve actually moved Hamels or Lee yet
10:19Comment From MattWhat do you consider it requires for any team to land Brett Anderson?
10:20Jeff Sullivan: Youve got one year/$9.5 million or two years/$20 million. Exercising the options makes him to be kind of like Scott Kazmir, which would be a fascinating comp. I think it requires a good prospect, and I love him as a high-upside gamble. But I love all high-upside gambles, which often dont work out
10:20Comment From PrichIf Kemp stays, who goes The Dodgers arent really going to have Ethier/Crawford/Kemp (combining to make $60 mil) to play 3 positions, could they be?
10:20Jeff Sullivan: Still think its ultimately Ethier
10:21Comment From Guestso Oliver is basically projecting Mike Trout is the best baseball player through his age 27 seasonif i did my math right (unlikely) 69.2 war next is Ty Cobb 68.7 if i did the leader board thing right (not likely).. i really like Mike Trout..that's all
10:21Jeff Sullivan: Trout isnt god, but hes the closest to god of all current baseball players
10:21Comment From GuestWhat AL managers worth the most wins?
10:21Jeff Sullivan: Biased answer is Maddon, honest answer is literally not one single idea
10:22Comment From AntonDo you see the Red Sox attempting to sign Choo whether they can get him on the 4 year deal?
10:22Jeff Sullivan: Hypothetically yes but its not going to arrived at that
10:22Jeff Sullivan: Everybody could be in on Choo for four years
10:22Comment From Sammy SooserI recall studying infield flyballs (Kershaws specialty) as a mi sing element of FIP, like a nearly guaranteed out, in spite of the fielders being involved. Will either FIP or WAR be adjusted to mirror IFF rates, comprising the slim likelihood of one of these falling in?
10:23Jeff Sullivan: I doubt it, and it would also make hardly any meaningful difference. But its something to definitely keep in mind when eying BABIP allowed
10:23Comment From kevinthecomicWas watching the wintertime meetings on MLB Network last night. RAJr. a serted his team is built to win now. Is anyone in baseball using facial recognition software to determine when/if GMs are lying? He tried to say it with a straight face, but I thought I saw a flinch.
10:23Jeff Sullivan: I think probably the most accurate thing is that his team isnt built to win anytime that isnt 2006
10:23Comment From AntonHow do you obtain a job with fan graphs?
10:24Jeff Sullivan: Submit awesome stuff to the community blog
10:24Comment From Dave9000What will be a clever right-handed-batting left fielder acquisition to enhance Gregor Blanco in San Francisco? Who'll Brian Sabean ultimately obtain?
10:24Jeff Sullivan: Drew Stubbs/someone thicker
10:25Comment From JeffWhat is the Orioles plan? It appears as though their offseason is types of backwards. When I visit a guy like Aoki choose a reliever, or a Josh Johnson choose cheap it makes me wonder exactly what the Os do.
10:25Jeff Sullivan: They have to be so frustrating to follow at this time. Totally caught among. It appears as though the program would be to keep together whats already there, supplement with third-tier bits and trying to get lucky
10:26Comment From SteveVWhos better next yr Eaton or Fowler forget the money? Some scouts think Eatons CF is substandard? Thoughts/
10:26Jeff Sullivan: Im siding with Fowler, however i cant really speak to Eatons defensive ability
10:26Comment From Dave Camerons PuppyWhere are these 5 year projections?
10:26Jeff Sullivan: Player pages, bottom
10:27Comment From DaveIll summarize it for you personally, Trumbo is an average MLB player, dont trade an exce sive amount of for him.
10:27Jeff Sullivan: Thanks!
10:28Jeff Sullivan: 3 years of control left, projected to make $4.Seven million in 2014. Call that $7 million and $9 million the following two years and youve got Trumbo at or simply above three years and $21 million. Saltalamacchia! Some surplus value there, although not very much
10:28Comment From snohomishCould the Mariner obtain righthander Ryan Dempster and outfielder Daniel Nava for next-to-nothing if the Ms picked up the whole 2014 tab of about $14 million?
10:29Jeff Sullivan: It might a minimum of not cost them greatly, on top of that money
10:30Comment From AndrewKIs there any real market for Drew Stubbs?
10:30Jeff Sullivan: Ask Carson
10:30Comment From Gila MonsterHow do trades such as the Fowler or Fister trades happen. The leading Office market is incredibly competitive, yet somehow someone rises to the peak that thinks these are plans and their support doesnt stage a coup.
10:31Jeff Sullivan: Tigers enjoy Ray, other teams skeptical of Fowler outside of Coors. While, in theory, theres an industry available of 29 potential suitors, not everybody knows when someone is available or something is near going down
10:31Comment From natsfanWas the fister trade enough to put the nationals outrageous within the NL East?
10:31Jeff Sullivan: Well they are several wins better now but theyre certainly not runaway favorites
10:32Comment From MarkIs there employment to make timely Simpsons references (no past say season 13)? If so, where will i apply?
10:32Jeff Sullivan: that job is called the internet
10:32Comment From DanI think youre being harsh on Rajai Davis, he has a ton of value inside a platoon role against LHP. Its not like theyll be letting him embarra s himself against RHP such as the Jays did.
10:32Jeff Sullivan: No-one can po sibly have a ton of value inside a platoon role against LHP
10:33Jeff Sullivan: Hes a fine role player and thats it
10:34Comment From NoahWho declines an upright up Ike Davis for Yunel Escobar trade?
10:34Jeff Sullivan: Rays, because Yunel Escobar is good
10:34Comment From MichaelWhy would the Yankees even want Espinosa? Arent they better off just signing Infante?
10:34Jeff Sullivan: 4 years of team control, po sible buy-low, 6.6 WAR 2011-2012
10:34Comment From SteveVBetter 2014 season- Cruz or Hart, Fowler or Eaton?
10:34Jeff Sullivan: Hart, Fowler
10:35Comment From NoahAre the Mets out on Ethier now that they got Granderson?
10:35Jeff Sullivan: I a sume so
10:37Comment From VanskiWhat could the Reds reasonably expect for Homer Bailey?
10:37Jeff Sullivan: A worse, longer-term SP. From the top of my head, I wonder when the Yankees would be interested in something like Bailey for Gardner + Nuno or something
10:38Jeff Sullivan: or Phelps
10:38Comment From PaulWhich team is currently to be the best in 2014? Tigers/Red Sox/Cardinals in a virtual tie?
10:38Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox, then Tigers
10:38Comment From GuestDo you know or no teams potentially interested in Nick Franklin see him like a SS?
10:38Jeff Sullivan: Nobody does
10:39Jeff Sullivan: Some teams barely see him like a 2B
10:39Comment From MkeManWhat baseball player has skills that are analogous to your skills as an author?
10:39Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki
10:39Comment From BkgeneralYou think the Astros did enough to not lose 100 games the coming year?
10:39Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think they push 90
10:40Comment From HehWhat Stephen Morris Jersey would it take to move Jason Castro this offseason?
10:40Jeff Sullivan: Quite a lot. Close-to-the-majors talent
10:40Comment From JasonCan you explain the large cope with Dexter Fowler? Could it be mostly in line with the fact that CFs having a league average bat with average defense are difficult to come by?
10:41Jeff Sullivan: Once highly touted, in career prime, appears like a good hitter, reason to believe hes better defensively in CF than his UZR due to Coors effect
10:42Jeff Sullivan: What I dont get, though, is the apparent divergence in opinion of Fowler and Jon Jay
10:42Comment From lolDerek Norris set up a 2 WAR season against LHP, and Gentry put up a 3.4 WAR season mainly platooned
10:44Jeff Sullivan: Gentry had 126 PA against righties and fielded for 650 innings. Davis also is not near to that sort of defender, and remember that the term is a lot of value
10:44Comment From MattStarling Marte posted a 199 wRC+ vs. LHPplatoon him with Choo.
10:44Jeff Sullivan: Because Choo is going to sign on to being a platoon player
10:44Comment From Robert DeNiros MoleWhat should a group like the Mariners realistically pay for David Price at his salary, otherwise Taijuan Walker + spare parts?
10:44Jeff Sullivan: Franklin+
10:44Jeff Sullivan: or Ackley+
10:44Comment From NickHeard anything on Stanton?
10:44Jeff Sullivan: apparently not moving
10:45Comment From SeymourThree many years of control left, projected to create $4.Seven million in 2014. Call that $7 million and $9 million the next two years and youve got Trumbo at or simply above 3 years and $21 million. Saltalamacchia! Some surplus value there, although not very much Hes po sibly the cheapest power OF corner available. Nelson Cruz probably gets twice what Trumbo gets the next 3 yrs. The Snakes have exce s OFers and arms. Makes sense.
10:45Jeff Sullivan: And then you get into the matter of, so what about power? Why not overall value?
10:45Comment From BillAre there any teams whose inactivity this winter season surprises you? Specifically, why cant the Reds find something more helpful to do in the free-agent or trade markets than sign Skip Schumaker?
10:45Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles are bizarre
10:46Jeff Sullivan: The Reds should get a bit louder however the whole upper-tier pitching market is slow to develop
10:46Comment From Pedantic A**holeDoesnt Hart make a variety of sense for the Ms?
10:46Jeff Sullivan: yes
10:46Comment From GuestNYYs are looking at playing Nunez and Kelly Johnson every day. Having a MLB earnings of e sentially nothing, there are plenty of good reasons why they might be interested in Espinosa
10:46Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, theyre going to do something to get better. Maybe two somethings
10:46Comment From MunchkinWhat team actually includes a (spare) cost controlled SS with upside realistically readily available for trade?
10:46Jeff Sullivan: Arizona
10:47Comment From JESYou and Muni are both funny, however, you have talent.
10:47Jeff Sullivan: Mune hit a dinger!
10:47Comment From JimIf Franklin isnt a 2B what is he? OF?
10:47Jeff Sullivan: Keep trying 2B for the time being, and he can cut it, but tend to have an OF future
10:47Comment From Inquiring MindsLord Farquar close for that Ms this year?
10:47Jeff Sullivan: should, but its 50/50
10:48Comment From FloAre the As finally the favourite in the AL West?
10:48Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, by a little
10:48Jeff Sullivan: Okay everyone, I need to get going. Havent even checked out twitter in 2 hours which can be a winter meetings catastrophe
10:49Jeff Sullivan: So, thank you all to stop by, and I apologize for which I didnt or couldnt addre s within the last 110 minutes or so. Well do it again next Tuesday, by which point many things not yet determined should be figured out, and until then, be and also have great days
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