Zaslal: so 12. srpen, 2017 16:01 Předmět: Your Opinions of the Team Projections Am
Hello! Early last week, partly from curiosity as well as in part since i had things you can do, I asked you to definitely do a couple of voting related to the sites Steamer team projections. I put up two posts, and heres the one concerning the American League. Basically, we lean on the projections a great deal, but we seldom ask for feedback, and I wanted to understand how the city felt about projected team records, based on where things stood last Monday. Now, several things have changed since Monday, but nothing important is different since Monday excepting, say, Seth Smith so circumstances remain mostly identical.
At time, I promised Id eventually review the data. Here now, the information will be reviewed, and in this informative article, Ill think about the is a result of the AL polls. I know its not perfect science. Differing people voted in different team polls. Different amounts of people voted in every team poll. I probably to some degree biased the voters by offering commentary before each William Perry Jersey poll was embedded. Neverthele s, information is information, and, lets see what we should generated! With which projections do people agree the most? With which projections do people agree the least?
Well start with a table of raw vote data. Remember, each poll had five options. Example:
Heres a bunch of numbers:
TeamWLow, greater than 3gLow, up to 3gGoodHigh, up to 3gHigh, more than 3gTOTALAngels8452472447198351852Astros76741606625532271676Athletics822314375953141621739Blue Jays84327620622164361769Indians85801976015781281584Mariners881042066956862321923Orioles79677511438114451785Rangers77234328560218941434Rays83331364755542911489Red Sox872533446654452341941Royals81140323731228511473Tigers8654206700398771435Twins7624955054402811345White Sox7841456638959291457Yankees83892296714142011604Thats all best understood with percentages, which well reach. Before advancing, note the last column, tracking total votes (as of late Monday night). Thats the sample size for each team. Every teams comfortably north of a thousand, that is excellent. But, no team got more votes compared to Red Sox, at nearly 2,000. Not a surprise; the Red Sox are immensely popular and particularly polarizing. And because theyre attempting to be good again next year, theres lots of interest there. Meanwhile, no team got fewer votes compared Deon Bush Jersey to Twins, at 1,345 above. The Twins are in last with a good margin. Though an admirer base certainly exists, said fans mightve been rendered a little bit numb. The Twins should be exciting soon, but soon isnt when 2015, and with the on-field product looking both mediocre along with a bit dull, there wasnt much voting enthusiasm, relatively speaking.
Now, percentages. Ive also included an attempted Average column, where I a signed each poll option several between 1 and 5, with 5 akin to low, by greater than 3 games. It is really an attempt to measure the average vote, and an average above 3 would indicate the audience thinks better of the team compared to projection. An average below 3 would indicate the alternative, according to how numbers work. The overall AL average was 3.07 indicating inflation, which we tend to observe in fan voting but its no big deal.
The table needs to be sortable!
TeamLow, greater than 3g%Low, as much as 3g%Good%High, as much as 3g%High, greater than 3g%Avg.Angels28%39%25%5%2%3.87Astros4%10%39%33%14%2.58Athletics13%25%34%18%9%3.15Blue Jays18%35%35%9%2%3.59Indians5%12%38%36%8%2.70Mariners5%11%36%36%12%2.62Orioles38%29%25%6%3%3.93Rangers16%23%39%15%7%3.27Rays2%9%32%37%20%2.37Red Sox13%18%34%23%12%2.97Royals10%22%50%15%3%3.19Tigers4%14%49%28%5%2.83Twins2%7%38%33%21%2.36White Sox28%39%27%4%2%3.88Yankees6%14%42%26%13%2.75Heres all the juicy stuff. It may be a lot to consume. But, we must start somewhere, so, lets begin with the Orioles. The Orioles had the best average vote in the American League. At the time these were projected for 79 wins. A great 38% of voters thought that was low by greater than three games, and another 29% think it is low by as much as three games. That 38% figure its the highest within the league, by ten percentage points. Just 9% of voters thought the Orioles projection was favorable. The Orioles are trying to be active, seeking to fill out the roster, but despite the roster unfilled, most voters think the Os are superior to Steamer provides them credit for. Given exactly what the Orioles did lately, this result isnt an unexpected.
Right behind the Orioles, we discover the White Sox, who have had an opposite sort of offseason in that while the Orioles happen to be quiet, the White Sox have stolen the AL spotlight. Just 6% of voters think the White Sox projection is too high, the lowest percentage within the league. For each one voter who determined the White Sox projection was high, more than 11 voters determined the projection was low. According to Steamer, the White Sox probably havent done enough to actually challenge for that AL Central title. Based on the fans, theyre in the actual mix.
And then your Angels are nearly despite the White Sox. The vote distribution is almost identical. A year ago the Angels won 98 games, and they havent lost that much. Losing Howie Kendrick is a blow, however the Gale Sayers Jersey audience doesnt think the Angels happen to be too horribly weakened.
At the other end, people do not like the Twins. In fairne s, I needed to correct an error in their section I originally produced in the post, and the error mightve thrown off a few voters, however the mistake was both obvious and fixed within minutes, and so i dont think thats much of a factor. More likely, the Twins just bum people out. Despite a 76-win projection, under 2% of voters thought the projection was low by more than three games, and merely 7% thought it was low by as much as three games. More than half the voters thought the projection was too *positive*. No team generated better pay of voters who thought the projection was exce sive by more than three games.
Very close to the Twins, we get the Rays. Unlike the Twins, the Rays are projected to become okay, but people arent buying it. Maybe its the strongly positive Evan Longoria projection. Maybe its because last year the Rays lost 85 games plus they dont have David Price or Matt Joyce. 11% of voters thought the Rays projection was low; 57% think it is high.
Then you get the Astros and also the Mariners. Again, these are different teams in various situations the Astros are projected to become probably the worst team in the league, while the Mariners are projected to become probably the best. In Sherrick McManis Jersey the two cases, people figured the projections were too strong, perhaps affected by whats largely been a lack of recent succe s. Although the Mariners were good just this past year, maybe here theyre make payment on price for the Angels being voted better. Maybe its as simple as the truth that its hard to wrap your head around the idea that the Mariners may be super. Who could blame anyone?
Lastly, I want to provide a feeling of vote distribution, in terms of how voters agreed with one another on the same teams. So heres each teams voting standard deviation, in line with the scale introduced above:
TeamStandard deviationRed Sox1.19Athletics1.15Rangers1.11Orioles1.05Yankees1.03Mariners1.01Astros0.99Rays0.97Indians0.96Blue Jays0.96Angels0.95Twins0.95White Sox0.94Royals0.93Tigers0.87Voters were whatsoever agreement with the Red Sox, and in the most agreement with the Tigers. The Red Sox were the only real AL Al Louis-Jean Jersey team to get at least 10% votes for the projection being low by more than three games, and for the projection being high by greater than three games. The Tigers drew just 4% and 5% votes, respectively, contributing to half the voters decided the Tigers projection was directly on. Near to the Red Sox, we find the As and also the Rangers. Its hard to understand what to make of the As at this time, because of all of the turnover. Its difficult to know what to make from the Rangers at this time, due to all the injured or recently-uninjured players. Close to the Tigers, we discover a lot of AL Central. Relatively speaking, fans are somewhat united in the way they consider that division. Its not that they are doing or don't agree with the projections; its they accept each other.
You could consider this, perhaps, as representing the mistake bars around team projections. This is a proxy of uncertainty, or maybe a direct way of measuring uncertainty, where people think about the Red Sox a lot more unpredictable than the Tigers. I dont know how much thats true, but I figure the fans need to be on to something. And i believe that example makes rational sense. The Red Sox look much more volatile. The Tigers really are a mostly stable team.
Up soon, the National League results. Thanks to everyone who took part in the voting, and thanks to every one who didnt participate in the voting, because youre all great.
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